The evidence behind the guides

Sources library

Browse by topic or search for a study, author or question. Open evidence notes to see what a source can—and cannot—tell us.

TopicCollection

Sources for Fast takeoff & recursive self-improvement

1 source

Guide citations are still under editorial review.

METR and Forecasting Research Institute · 2025 Forecasting study

Forecasting the Impacts of AI R&D Acceleration: Results of a Pilot Study (original source, new tab)

Small pilot elicits conditional beliefs about research acceleration; disagreement and question interpretation limit generalization.

Sources retain their original publishers’ rights. Inclusion does not imply endorsement. Saved sources stay in this browser on this device. Dates and source descriptions come from the existing editorial records.